Road safety research in low- and middle-income countries is limited, even though ninety percent of global road traffic fatalities are concentrated in these locations. In Colombia, road traffic injuries are the second leading source of mortality by external causes and constitute a significant public health concern in the city of Bogotá. Bogotá is among the top 10 most bike-friendly cities in the world. However, bicyclists are one of the most vulnerable road-users in the city.
The Level of Traffic Stress (LTS) is an indicator that quantifies the stress experienced by a cyclist on the segments of a road network. We propose an LTS-based classification with two components: a clustering component and an interpretative component. Our methodology is comprised of four steps: (i) compilation of a set of variables for road segments, (ii) generation of clusters of segments within a subset of the road network, (iii) classification of all segments of the road network into these clusters using a predictive model, and (iv) assignment of an LTS category to each cluster. At the core of the methodology, we couple a classifier (unsupervised clustering algorithm) with a predictive model (multinomial logistic regression) to make our approach scalable to massive data sets. Our methodology is a useful tool for policy-making, as it identifies suitable areas for interventions; and can estimate their impact on the LTS classification, according to probable changes to the input variables (e.g., traffic density). We applied our methodology on the road network of Bogotá, Colombia, a city with a history of implementing innovative policies to promote biking. To classify road segments, we combined government data with open-access repositories using geographic information systems (GIS). Comparing our LTS classification with city reports, we found that the number of bicyclists’ fatal and non-fatal collisions per kilometer is positively correlated with higher LTS. Finally, to support policy making, we developed a web-enabled dashboard to visualize and analyze the LTS classification and its underlying variables.
In the equatorial Pacific, rainfall is affected by global climate phenomena, such as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, current publicly available methodologies for valuing weather derivatives do not account for the influence of ENSO. The purpose of this paper is to develop a complete framework suitable for valuing rainfall derivatives in the equatorial Pacific.
Road safety research in low- and middle-income countries is limited, even though ninety percent of global road traffic fatalities are concentrated in these locations. In Colombia, road traffic injuries are the second leading source of mortality by external causes and constitute a significant public health concern in the city of Bogotá. Bogotá is among the top 10 most bike-friendly cities in the world. However, bicyclists are one of the most vulnerable road-users in the city. Therefore, assessing the pattern of mortality and understanding the variables affecting the outcome of bicyclists’ collisions in Bogotá is crucial to guide policies aimed at improving safety conditions. This study aims to determine the spatiotemporal trends in fatal and nonfatal collision rates and to identify the individual and contextual factors associated with fatal outcomes. We use confidence intervals, geo-statistics, and generalized additive mixed models (GAMM) corrected for spatial correlation.
Reliable and safe access to drinking water is necessary to ensure the economic and social sustainable development of human communities. This task requires a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) methodology to select alternatives for new water supply infrastructure. These alternatives represent significant financial resources and are established for a long lifespan. To support decision-making in the context of building new water supply infrastructure, this study developed an MCDA methodology that integrates a hierarchy of non-economic benefits and the expected costs into a global index. Our methodology was implemented in the city of Santa Marta, Colombia. This city currently has a 60% drinking water shortage, and urgently needs to expand its capacity to satisfy the increasing water demand. The results of this study support the implementation of the best alternative for addressing Santa Marta’s water supply problem by considering the preferences of stakeholders.